Voucher Facts
Tomorrow I will debate Utah PTA President Carmen Snow on vouchers. (Dixie State College, Gardner Center, 10/23, at 5:30 p.m.). I admire Carmen and am pleased to share the podium with her.
The PTA sent flyers home with just about every student. It was a very neutral invitation to come hear some discussion. Props to the Washington County PTA!
After the debate, I will post a video and, hopefully, a transcript. I am assuming the debate will have good substance and will be a good resource for voters still deciding.
I believe that the pro-voucher side is behind right now. But I get the very clear sense that we're making up ground as people dig into the details. This one will come down to the wire.
Correction: The rebuttal in the voter information pamphlet asks, “Why is there such a fuss over 0.0025% of the education budget?” The “%” sign should not have been included; in other words, the cost of vouchers – before any savings are factored in – represents less than ¼ of 1% of education spending in the State. I confirmed with the Legislative Fiscal Analyst today (as had been discussed below) that the voucher program begins to realize net savings for public education right around the point that an additional 1% of the school-eligible population takes advantage of vouchers and switches to private schools. Anything beyond that point is pure savings to the system at the rate of $5,500 per student.
The PTA sent flyers home with just about every student. It was a very neutral invitation to come hear some discussion. Props to the Washington County PTA!
After the debate, I will post a video and, hopefully, a transcript. I am assuming the debate will have good substance and will be a good resource for voters still deciding.
I believe that the pro-voucher side is behind right now. But I get the very clear sense that we're making up ground as people dig into the details. This one will come down to the wire.
Correction: The rebuttal in the voter information pamphlet asks, “Why is there such a fuss over 0.0025% of the education budget?” The “%” sign should not have been included; in other words, the cost of vouchers – before any savings are factored in – represents less than ¼ of 1% of education spending in the State. I confirmed with the Legislative Fiscal Analyst today (as had been discussed below) that the voucher program begins to realize net savings for public education right around the point that an additional 1% of the school-eligible population takes advantage of vouchers and switches to private schools. Anything beyond that point is pure savings to the system at the rate of $5,500 per student.
posted by steve u. at 10/22/2007
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4 Comments:
If the pro-voucher side is gaining ground, why does every new poll that comes out show you guys further behind?
-Bob
Steve,
I appreciate you! See you tonight. I have been trying to learn about this debate for a few weeks now, and was out of the loop. Thanks for blogging! You're great!
Marta
Can't wait to hear how it goes.
Steve,
Would you be willing to share the numbers behind your contention that a 1% switch rate will lead to net savings for public education?
I've run my own models using the LFA's numbers and assumptions. As far as I can tell it will take about a 1.77% switch rate relative to the entire student population just to hit the break even point (this is at full implementation). This is 4 to 5 times the estimated rate from the LFA.
Contrary to your assertion, a 1% switch rate leads to a net loss over the first 13 years of about $27 million (in constant dollars). Furthermore, the net loss in year 13 alone, when the program is fully implemented, is $22 million, an amount that could be assumed to be ongoing at that point.
I'd love to see how we came to such different answers using the LFA as a starting point.
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